As Holidays Approach, How Is Seasonal Hiring Shaping Up?

It’s that time of year:

• Consulting firm Deloitte recently predicted 2025 holiday retail sales will increase by as much as 3.4%, and e-commerce holiday sales will grow between 7% and 9%.
• Employment agency Challenger, Gray & Christmas forecast that, amid looming tariffs and lingering inflationary pressures, 2025 U.S. seasonal retail-sector hiring will fall to its lowest point since the 2009 recession.

So, the holiday rush is coming but the seasonal hiring playbook appears to have shifted. Is your company prepared?

The Challenger report projected retailers may collectively add less than 500,000 positions in the final three months of 2025, marking the smallest seasonal gain in 16 years and an 8% decline from the year-ago period. Similarly, seasonal hiring in the transportation and warehousing sectors is expected to underperform. In these sectors, seasonal hiring dropped 2% from 2023 to 2024, and Challenger forecast a further decline this year as e-commerce businesses and logistics providers continue to lean on automation, flexible scheduling and year-round staff to meet fluctuating demand.

“The traditional seasonal spike in warehousing and shipping jobs is no longer as pronounced, and that shift could be permanent,” noted the report.

But in a recent survey of 1,200 workers and 1,200 seasonal hiring decision-makers across the U.S. and the United Kingdom, staffing platform Indeed Flex found 57% of workers are considering taking on extra work this holiday season to make ends meet.

It’s a perfect storm of economic tension, said John Land, the chief advocacy officer at Vantage Circle, an employee engagement and benefits platform.

“I see this year’s holiday hiring season as a mirror of our broader economy — uncertain, uneven and emotionally charged on both sides,” he said. “People are hustling because they have to. Businesses and workers are navigating the same volatility, and if business leaders don’t handle it with empathy and clarity, it risks widening the trust gap between business and labor.”

Proceeding with Caution, Pursuing Agility

Experts generally agree that employers are taking a more cautious approach to seasonal hiring this year. At the time of the Challenger report, only three companies (Bath & Body Works, Spirit Halloween & Geodis) had announced their target numbers of seasonal hires for the holiday rush.

“Companies don’t want to overpromise in a volatile economy,” Land said. “Retailers are watching demand before committing. Caution is the new confidence.”

The muted announcements also signal a trend toward more agile staffing strategies, said Novo Constare, the CEO and co-founder of Indeed Flex.

“Businesses are shifting away from the traditional model,” he said. “Instead, they are using flexible, on-demand talent to scale up closer to peak demand rather than locking in large numbers months in advance. That shift reduces the need for prominent early announcements but doesn’t necessarily signal that hiring isn’t happening.”

According to the Indeed Flex survey, nearly half of retail, logistics and hospitality businesses (48%) expect an increase in holiday demand, and just over half (51%) plan to bring on more seasonal staff than they did last year, despite the current economic volatility.

Increasingly, employers are looking to technology to tackle these seasonal staffing challenges.

“Businesses are prioritizing efficiency and predictability — investing in automation, optimizing workflows and redeploying internal talent — and then augmenting those teams with highly capable seasonal workers who can step in quickly and add value where it’s needed most,” Constare said.

This approach can help organizations be more cost-effective and responsive, particularly in an uncertain economic climate, he said.

At the same time, worker interest in seasonal and supplemental income opportunities remains strong and is even rising, creating a dynamic where supply is abundant but demand is more targeted.

“The result is a seasonal hiring landscape that’s evolving — it may look smaller or quieter from the outside, but it’s becoming more efficient, more adaptable and ultimately more aligned with the realities of today’s labor market,” Constare said.

Suggested Strategies

According to Constare, the most successful seasonal hiring strategies are those that focus on speed, transparency and flexibility.

“Simplifying the application and onboarding process is essential. Workers want to start quickly and with minimal friction,” he said. “Clearly communicating pay, hours and expectations helps attract the right talent, while flexible scheduling and the ability to choose shifts make roles more appealing.”

Incentives like referral bonuses, end-of-season rewards or on-demand pay also can set employers apart, Constare added.

“Offer fast hiring, flexible shifts, recognition and daily pay — that’s the new playbook,” Land agreed. “Workers want transparency and reliability more than perks. When they feel trusted, they show up.”

Once workers are onboarded, thoughtful training, regular feedback and recognition can go a long way toward boosting retention and productivity, Constare said.

“And for employers that want to build a reliable seasonal workforce year after year, creating a path for top performers to return in future seasons or transition into longer-term roles is a proven strategy,” he said. “These practices not only attract strong talent but also build loyalty, even in short-term roles.”

Editor’s Note: Additional Content

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