Over 100K Shortage of Healthcare Workers Predicted by 2028

A nationwide shortage of 100,000 critical healthcare workers is expected by 2028, according to a new Mercer report.

Mercer cited several factors contributing to the growing shortage, including accelerated worker resignations due to COVID-19 pandemic response, continued worker burnout and non-competitive compensation for some roles. New positions added in the coming years are not expected to meet the increasing demand for care being driven in part by America’s aging population.

Mercer projected the following nationwide outcomes by 2028:

A “moderate” surplus of physicians, with significant shortages in Texas, California and New York, and large surpluses in Pennsylvania, Indiana and Minnesota.
A shortage of nurse practitioners, with almost every state coming up short and large deficits in California, New York and Texas.
A surplus of nearly 30,000 registered nurses, but significant shortages in several states, including New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Tennessee. The largest surpluses are projected for Texas, California and Michigan.
A “discouraging” deficit of more than 73,000 nursing assistants. California, Texas and New York are predicted to have the largest shortages, with the largest surpluses projected for North Carolina and Washington state.
A surplus of home health and personal care aides of almost 48,000, with California expected to have the largest surplus by far, followed by Texas. The largest shortages are anticipated for North Carolina, New York, Oregon and Tennessee.

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How Healthcare Employers Can Prepare for Impending Worker Shortage

With Pandemic Further in Rearview, Projections Shift

Mercer’s latest study anticipated a smaller nationwide worker shortage than what it projected in its 2021 report. The newest projections also partially diverge from other analyses, some of which continue to predict shortages of physicians and registered nurses in the coming years.

The Mercer report offered new insights to supplement analyses from during and immediately following the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting recent staffing improvements have followed the significant healthcare worker burnout and attrition seen during the pandemic.

However, despite the surpluses Mercer projected in certain areas, the nuances of role-specific and location-specific shortages should still put employers on alert, said Dan Lezotte, partner in workforce strategy and analytics at Mercer.

Effects of Individual Role Shortages

The large deficit of nurse practitioners will likely place a greater primary care burden on physicians. In states anticipating sizable shortages of both nurse practitioners and physicians (e.g., California, New York and Texas), significant impacts on preventive care are expected. The nationwide projected shortage of nursing assistants may similarly mean an increased burden on registered nurses.

“Nursing assistants and medical assistants are lower-wage roles, but those are the roles that are critical to care delivery,” Lezotte said. “I’ve had a client say that they’re kind of giving up on keeping medical assistants and nursing assistants. They can do a better job of finding and retaining registered nurses, so they’re hiring more of them, but that’s an expensive solution at a time when healthcare systems are under tremendous operating margin pressures.”

Employer Readiness and the Bottom Line

Healthcare employers have explored new ways to attract and retain workers for the past several years — but these investments aren’t free, said Andy Davidson, president of Gallagher Healthcare.

“The financial impacts of these investments and the impact of inflation on drug and supply costs have kept operating margins at historically low levels,” Davidson said. “Having the available resources to continue investments in their workforce ... means that those purchasing care will see increased costs. It’s a Catch-22.”

Employers in all industries will need to respond to rising healthcare costs in innovative ways to avoid paring down health benefits, including through expanded access to virtual care and well-being benefits.

“Preventive health is critical,” Lezotte said. “How do you keep your employees healthier? If you can focus on that, then there’s less demand for the serious healthcare needs in the future.”

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