GOAT or Scapegoat: AI May (or May Not) Be Reason for Layoffs

According to recent news reports, artificial intelligence (AI) was the stated reason for more than 50,000 layoffs in 2025, but some experts suggest that organizations are disingenuously blaming AI for layoffs, or “AI washing.”

But according to John Bremen, the managing director and chief innovation and acceleration officer at consulting firm WTW, only a small percentage of early AI implementations are showing meaningful return on investment (ROI).

“As a result, companies are looking to fund AI investments with cuts in other forms of spending,” he said. “Given that people costs represent the largest cost item for many companies, it stands to reason that leaders look to reduce people costs to fund AI investment.”

A separate report by advisory firm Forrester found that AI and automation will replace 6.1% of U.S. job roles by 2030 as agentic AI becomes more functional. Yet most of the impact on workers will be people changing jobs, not replacing them, said J. P. Gownder, a vice president and the principal analyst at the firm.

In reality, he said it would take months or even years for an organization that doesn’t already have a mature, vetted AI solution to create one that could replace human labor.

“AI washing is pervasive because CEOs find AI a useful scapegoat to shield their financially motivated layoff decisions,” Gownder said.

While its effect on the modern workplace is yet to be fully felt, it’s imperative for HR professionals to learn if and how AI may already be affecting their organization’s headcount.

‘Washing’ Away Trust

Despite the growing reports of AI washing, there are some jobs that are truly being affected by AI, said Jason Walker, a co-founder of Thrive HR Consulting.

They include entry-level coding roles, and those in procurement, customer service, marketing and research, he said.

“Each quarter, more roles can now be performed more efficiently with AI,” Walker said. “AI anxiety is likely higher now than ever. … Companies need to decide how they will use AI internally and communicate this clearly to employees to reduce anxiety. We shouldn’t push AI adoption without thinking about how it impacts people in our organizations.”

According to Gownder, AI washing also could encourage employees to reject the AI tools that otherwise could help them.

“Creating a pervasive environment of fear around AI — with the idea being ‘my job could be next’ — will hurt AI implementation efforts greatly,” he warned.

Erik Stettler, the chief economist at global talent marketplace platform Toptal, added that distrust also could cast AI as the antagonist in the eyes of workers.

“That would severely inhibit its competitiveness versus other organizations that proactively embrace these tools at all levels,” he said.

Automate Tasks, Not Jobs

Instead of framing AI as something taking away jobs, Stettler said AI should be communicated as a tool used to take on certain tasks.

“Some of these tasks are more susceptible to automation than others,” he said, adding that the types of tasks at risk are those with more direct and linear processes and specific, correct outcomes.

The key is for employers to assess the composition of tasks across their roles, said Stettler.

“Every role contains tasks that can be automated, tasks that can be enhanced by AI, tasks that are largely unaffected and new tasks that AI makes possible,” he explained.

Employers should assess where workers’ tasks fall in terms of opportunities for automation and what tasks need judgment, creativity, communication, client interactions and other “human” responsibilities, Stettler said.

After implementation, he said success can be determined by how much time then shifts from routine processing to higher-value judgment, client interaction or strategic work.

Improve Your Communication Strategies

To ensure your organization is communicating clearly about its intended use of AI and any related layoffs, Walker suggested creating cross-functional AI teams, including representatives from all functions to help chart the company’s AI course.

In areas where AI will dramatically change work, Walker said employers should plan ahead for any affected workers.

“Communicate, train and prepare employees for the new reality,” he said.

Gowdner advised organizations to build a core plan around augmenting human employees with AI skills to drive productivity and a positive employee experience.

In the end, “don’t build your plan around job cuts,” he said.

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