U.S. Workers’ Salary Bar for Taking Another Job Slid Nearly 10%

Workspan Daily published a pair of articles on Monday, April 21, exploring how the power balance may be favoring employers in their relationship with employees.

The latest labor market report within the triannual Survey of Consumer Expectations, released that same day by the New York Federal Reserve Bank, likely underscored the synopsis.

The New York Fed’s research showed the average “reservation wage” — the lowest salary U.S. respondents said they would be willing to accept for a new job — was $74,236 in March, a $7,899 (9.6%) drop compared to November 2024 ($82,135) and the compensation barometer’s lowest figure since November 2023 ($73,391).

Another compensation data point from the report, “average job offer wage expectation,” increased 1.2% over the four-month period to $66,712, but year over year, that total is 4.8% less than March 2024 ($70,085).

The reservation wage slide likely reflects Americans’ increasing concerns about the U.S. and global economy (i.e., rising inflation and consumer prices, an escalating international trade war, federal job cuts).

A Closer Look at Reservation Wage Data

Comparing data from the past four months, the reservation wage decrease was most pronounced for:

• Men
• Respondents older than age 45
• Those with an annual income of $60,000 or less
• Those who do not have a college degree

Examining demographics, the data showed reservation wages of:

• $82,297 for men (10.9% lower than November 2024 and 13.8% lower than March 2024), versus $65,589 for women (-6.5% over the past four months, -1.0% over the past year).
• $71,841 for workers older than age 45 (-11.7%, -6.4%), versus $79,790 for workers aged 45 or younger (-7.3%, -12.0%).
• $47,624 for those currently earning $60,000 or less (-12.3%, -7.4%), versus $92,649 for those making more than $60,000 (-6.0%, -7.5%).
• $58,281 for those without a college degree (-10.9%, -7.4%), versus $94,975 for those with a college degree or higher (-7.1%, -4.1%).

A Closer Look at Job Offer Wage Expectation

Comparing data from the past four months, the job offer wage expectation picture was less rosy for:

• Women
• Respondents older than age 45
• Those with an annual income greater than $60,000
• Those who do have a college degree

Examining demographics, the data showed a job offer wage expectation of:

• $56,541 for women (6.6% lower over the past four months, 1.2% lower over the past year), versus $76,405 for men (+7.9%, -6.9%).
• $63,326 for workers older than age 45 (-2.0%, -4.3%), versus $69,535 for workers aged 45 or younger (+4.0%, -5.9%).
• $83,156 for those making more than $60,000 (-0.3%, -2.5%), versus $39,303 for those currently earning $60,000 or less (+0.3%, -5.3%)
• $86,803 for those with a college degree or higher (-0.6%, -1.3%), versus $49,814 for those without a college degree (+0.8%, -6.9%).

A Tenuous Job Market Ahead?

The new Fed report also presented data that reflected increased concerns over layoffs and unemployment:

• Mean unemployment expectations — or the mean probability that the U.S. jobless rate will be higher one year from now — jumped 4.6 percentage points to 44.0%, the highest reading since April 2020. The increase was broad-based across age, education and income groups.
• The mean perceived probability of an individual losing their job in the next 12 months increased by 1.6 percentage points to 15.7%, the highest level since March 2024. The increase was largest for respondents with annual household incomes below $50,000.
• The mean probability of leaving a job voluntarily in the next 12 months increased by 0.4 percentage point to 18.0%, remaining far below the 12-month trailing average of 19.7%.
• The mean perceived probability of finding a job if a worker’s current job was lost decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 51.1%.

Editor’s Note: Additional Content

For more information and resources related to this article, see the pages below, which offer quick access to all WorldatWork content on these topics:

• Employee Compensation
• Finance and Budgeting