’Tis the Season: How Is the Q4 Seasonal Hiring Picture Shaping Up?

In 2025, fourth-quarter seasonal hiring in the U.S. reached its lowest point since the 2008 financial crisis. A prominent outplacement and executive coaching firm now predicts the 2026 Q4 numbers will be even lower.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas released its annual seasonal hiring report in late September, predicting less than 450,000 jobs will be added to cover this year’s holiday rush.

The drop is anticipated despite no signs that consumers intend to spend less. The report pointed out August retail sales jumped 1.2% and back-to-school spending was solid.

A few retail powerhouses recently announced hiring sprees:

• Spirit Halloween announced the largest seasonal hiring push in its history, with 52,000 associates to staff a record 1,575 stores across the U.S. and Canada.
• Michaels announced plans to hire more than 10,000 seasonal workers, noting nearly half of last year’s seasonal in-store roles converted to regular positions.

But several major retailers that have historically issued early hiring targets — including Amazon, Bath & Body Works, Target and Kohls — have not publicly shared holiday hiring goals as of the publication of this article.

“Almost every hiring announcement we’ve seen in the last three years is smaller and more surgical than the pre-pandemic playbook,” said Andy Challenger, the workplace expert and chief revenue officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas. “Even if the big names come in at last year’s numbers, the total will likely fall well short of the 2019-2021 peaks.”

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A Focus on Labor Optimization

The strategy shift continues a trend among retailers to lean on existing staff, on-demand labor pools and automation.

“We’re still seeing seasonal hiring as employers prepare for holiday demand, but many organizations are taking a labor optimization approach,” said Sue Holloway, a content director at WorldatWork. “Before hiring headcount, they’re looking to provide more hours to existing employees, use flexible scheduling and maximize workforce productivity.”

Technology also is changing the equation, Holloway said. Investment in automation, robotics and artificial intelligence (AI) can influence demand for seasonal workers.

This is particularly noticeable in the transportation and warehousing sectors, in which seasonal hiring also is trending down.

“[These technologies] continue to reshape the peak-season labor profile in warehousing,” the Challenger report noted. “The traditional seasonal spike in shipping jobs has been dulled, and every year that shift looks a little more permanent.”

Holloway called out that economic uncertainty also is a factor, despite the past few months’ solid consumer spending number. She pointed to rising energy/gas costs, tariffs and inflation that could yet lead consumers to pull back during the holiday season.

“Overall, seasonal hiring isn’t disappearing, but employers are becoming more strategic and selective about where and how they add temporary talent,” Holloway said.

The Competitive Push to Secure Available Talent

Holloway described the current labor market as “low hire, low fire” — unemployment remains relatively low, but hiring activity is more subdued than it was a few years ago.

“For seasonal employers, that means the talent pool is somewhat more accessible than during the peak labor shortages of 2021 and 2022, but competition remains strong for reliable workers who have valuable experience,” she said.

The more balanced talent market offers good access to candidates, but finding dependable workers who are available during peak holiday hours remains a competitive proposition, agreed Jennifer Clark, the vice president of talent acquisition services practices at consulting firm Gallagher.

“While there are more people seeking work than during the post-pandemic labor crunch, employers still need to move quickly and offer a compelling experience to secure the best talent,” she said.

According to Holloway, pay alone won’t win the day — candidates have higher expectations and are evaluating scheduling flexibility, workplace culture, career opportunities and overall employee experience.

“Employers should think beyond compensation and focus on the full employee value proposition,” she said. “A positive candidate and employee experience can be a competitive advantage in a crowded hiring market.”

Editor’s Note: Additional Content

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